Ýòîò ìåòîä ïîñòðîåí íà òðåíäàõ è íà êîððåêöèè. Çäåñü íåò íèêàêèõ äðóãèõ ïðàâèë âûõîäà, êðîìå âûõîäà ïðè ñèòóàöèè ðåâåðñèâíîãî õîäà è èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ çàùèòíîé îñòàíîâêè. Åñëè ïîçèöèÿ ïî êàêîìó-ëèáî èíñòðóìåíòó ÿâëÿåòñÿ äëèííîé, òî îíà áóäåò îñòàâàòüñÿ äëèííîé äî òîãî ìîìåíòà, ïîêà íå ïîÿâèòñÿ ñèãíàë î ðàçâîðîòå è ñîçäàíèè êîðîòêîé ïîçèöèè, ëèáî îá èíèöèàëèçàöèè îñòàíîâêè, ÷òîáû ïðåäîòâðàòèòü ïîòåðè. Ðåçóëüòàòû äëÿ âîñüìè ðûíêîâ ïðèâåäåíû íà ñòð. 184-185.
Ìåòîä, êîòîðûé äàåò ýòè öèôðû, óäèâèòåëüíî ïðîñò. Ïðàâèëà òàêîâû:
Ïîêóïêà:
Ñðåäíåå ïî çàêðûòèþ, ðàññ÷èòàííîå ïî "X"- äíåâíîìó ïåðèîäó, äîëæíî áûòü âûøå, ÷åì àíàëîãè÷íîå ñðåäíåå "Y" äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè äîëæíà áûòü ìåíüøå, ÷åì àíàëîãè÷íàÿ öåíà "Y" äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè äîëæíà áûòü âûøå, ÷åì öåíà íà çàêðûòèå "Y+X" äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Åñëè ñîáëþäåíû âñå òðè óñëîâèÿ, òî íóæíî îñóùåñòâëÿòü ïîêóïêó ïðè îòêðûòèè íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü.
Ïðîäàæà:
Ñðåäíåå ïî çàêðûòèþ, ðàññ÷èòàííîå ïî "X"- äíåâíîìó ïåðèîäó äîëæíî áûòü ìåíüøå, ÷åì àíàëîãè÷íîå ñðåäíåå "Y" äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè äîëæíà áûòü áîëüøå, ÷åì àíàëîãè÷íàÿ öåíà "Ó äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè äîëæíà áûòü ìåíüøå, ÷åì öåíà íà çàêðûòèå "Y+X" äíåé òîìó íàçàä.
Åñëè ñîáëþäåíû âñå òðè óñëîâèÿ, òî íóæíî îñóùåñòâëÿòü ïðîäàæó ïðè îòêðûòèè íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü.
Íàïðèìåð, åñëè "Õ"= 20 è "Y"=3, òî 20-äíåâíîå ñðåäíåå ïî çàêðûòèþ äîëæíî áûòü áîëüøå (äëÿ ïîêóïêè), ÷åì ýòî ñðåäíåå, ðàññ÷èòàííîå 3 äíÿ òîìó íàçàä. Ýòî ïðîñòî îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî 20-äíåâíîå ñðåäíåå ïî çàêðûòèþ ïîäíèìàåòñÿ.
Çàòåì íåîáõîäèìî, ÷òîáû ñåãîäíÿøíÿÿ öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè áûëà íèæå, ÷åì öåíà ïðè çàêðûòèè 3 äíÿ òîìó íàçàä. Ýòî ïîìîãàåò îïðåäåëèòü, íå ïðîèçîéäåò ëè îòêàò ðàíåå âõîäà â ðûíîê.  êîíå÷íîì èòîãå íåîáõîäèìî, ÷òîáû öåíà (äàæå åñëè îíà íèæå, ÷åì 3 äíÿ íàçàä) áûëà òàêæå âûøå, ÷åì 23 äíÿ íàçàä. Ýòî ïðîâåðêà íàëè÷èÿ âîñõîäÿùåãî ñêîëüçÿùåãî ñðåäíåãî. Ìåòîä ìîæåò äåéñòâîâàòü äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà íå âîçíèêíåò ñèãíàë ðàçâîðîòà èëè åñëè ðûíîê íå çàéäåò ñëèøêîì äàëåêî ïðîòèâ ïîçèöèè áåç ñèãíàëà î ðàçâîðîòå.
Âîò è âñå. Òðè î÷åíü ïðîñòûõ, î÷åíü ëîãè÷íûõ ïðàâèëà äàëè òåñòîâûå ðåçóëüòàòû, ïðèâåäåííûå âûøå. Ïîêàçàòåëè íàñòîëüêî âíóøèòåëüíû, ÷òî íå òðåáóåòñÿ ïðîâîäèòü ñëèøêîì ãëóáîêèé àíàëèç, ÷òîáû ïîíÿòü, ñòîèò ëè èì ïîëüçîâàòüñÿ èëè íåò. Åäèíñòâåííûé âîïðîñ - ýòî êàêîâû "X" è "Y"? Äëÿ âñåõ ïðàêòè÷åñêèõ öåëåé "X" ìîæåò áûòü ëþáîé âåëè÷èíîé, êîòîðàÿ îòðàæàëà áû âîñõîäÿùåå äâèæåíèå äîëãîñðî÷íîãî òðåíäà. "Ó ìîæåò áûòü ëþáûì ÷èñëîì, êîòîðîå îòðàæàåò êðàòêîñðî÷íûé îòêàò. Íåêîòîðûå çíà÷åíèÿ "X" è "Y" äàäóò áîëåå îáíàäåæèâàþùèå ïîêàçàòåëè ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ äðóãèìè çíà÷åíèÿìè. Íî, êàê ïðàâèëî, åñëè öèôðû ïîïàäàþò ïîä ëîãèêó ìåòîäà, îíè äîëæíû äàâàòü óñòîé÷èâóþ ñòàòèñòèêó.
Áîíäû Øâåéöàðñêèé Ôðàíê
×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $92.000 ×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $81.800
# Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 30/48 # Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 37/66 % âûèãðûøåé 63% % âûèãðûøåé 56% Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $3.775 Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $3,440 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $1.150 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $1.570
Êîýôôèöèåíò Êîýôôèöèåíò
âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 3,29 âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,19
Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $1.915 Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $1.239
Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$5.875 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$9.000
Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 5,48 Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 2,80
% âðåìåíè â % âðåìåíè
ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 52% â ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 68%
Ñðåäíÿÿ Ñðåäíÿÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $2.100 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $4.500
Íåôòü Ïøåíèöà
×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $65.290 ×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $25.740
# Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 43/73 # Âûèãðûø /ïðîèãðûø 35/61 % âûèãðûøåé 59% % âûèãðûøåé 57% Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $2.000 Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $1.180 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $725 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $615
Êîýôôèöèåíò Êîýôôèöèåíò
âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,80 âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 1,93
Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $895 Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $404
Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$5.700 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$4.800
Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 4,01 Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 2,50
% âðåìåíè â % âðåìåíè â
ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 59% ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 69%
Ñðåäíÿÿ Ñðåäíÿÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $1.700 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $1.500
ßïîíñêàÿ Èåíà 10-Ëåòíèå Íîòû
×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $118.300 ×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $62.000
# Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 20/35 # Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 30/50 % âûèãðûøåé 57% % âûèãðûøåé 60% Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $3.900 Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $2.600 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $1.500 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $890
Êîýôôèöèåíò Êîýôôèöèåíò
âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,60 âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,92
Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $2.235 Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $1.240
Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$9.400 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$5.900
Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 4,29 Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 4,50
% âðåìåíè % âðåìåíè â
ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 64% ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 64%
Ñðåäíÿÿ Ñðåäíÿÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $3.500 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $1.700
Íåìåöêàÿ Ìàðêà Åâðîäîëëàð
×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $64.500 ×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $13.250
#Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 24/38 # Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 27/47 % âûèãðûøåé 63% % âûèãðûøåé 57% Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $3.400 Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $775 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $1.300 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $384
Êîýôôèöèåíò Êîýôôèöèåíò
âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,6 âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,02
Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $1.700 Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $280
Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$6.500 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$2.850
Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 4,50 Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 2,72
% âðåìåíè â % âðåìåíè â
ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 56% ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 64%
Ñðåäíÿÿ Ñðåäíÿÿ
ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $2.700 ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $800
Ñâîäíûå ðåçóëüòàòû ïî âñåì 8 ðûíêàì
×èñòàÿ ïðèáûëü $520.300
# Âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 243/422 % âûèãðûøåé 57% Ñðåäíèé âûèãðûø $2.860 Ñðåäíèé óáûòîê $ 1.000 Êîýôôèöèåíò âûèãðûø/ïðîèãðûø 2,8 Ñðåäíÿÿ òîðãîâëÿ $1.230 Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà -$14.500 Ôàêòîð ïðèáûëè 3,90 % âðåìåíè â ïîòåðÿõ êàïèòàëà. 65% Ñðåäíÿÿ ïîòåðÿ êàïèòàëà $3.400