MEDIUM AND SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dynamic Trading Approach
While common sense would lead us to use only empirical
results, i.e. business day observations, can we assume that volatility is the same day in and day out? Obviously not. On some days markets move more than on other days. We will call these days «Economic Days», where a corporate buyout or natural disaster fundamentally impacts the price of an asset.
On most davs. market volatility will be low since substantial «Economic Days» do not occur that often. The overall price movement (volatility) that will occur in any market will simply be the summation of all price movements both subdued and extreme. When the analvst is forecasting volatility, he cannot do so blindly. He must adjust his projections based on the number of «Economic Days» that have already occurred over his sample period. After counting the «Economic Days» that have already occurred, he will have a better feel for the remaining number of expected «Economic Days». While we can never be certain of what may occur, applying simple principles of probability can provide insights.
common sense — здравый смысл,
day in day out — изо дня в день,
buyout —выкуп, приобретение
контрольного пакета акций,
to impact —влиять,
It's all about PROFITS
Reiving only on chart support and resistance is not very effective, as these levels can be penetrated easily in strong trending markets and often leave the analyst feeling 'lost' when the price enters uncharted territory. Most intra-day players do not care whether the greenback closes higher or lower in the US, as they only trade between 8:00am and 5:00pm during their own time
zone. Projected targets that are 150—300 points away from the current rate are therefore of no practical interest to them. While the direction of major trend is important. what an intra-dav trader needs is an approach that will enable him to profit continuously on normal trading days. In an uptrend, for example, a 50 to 80 point rise may be followed by a 20—30 point pullback and then another rise of 60—80 points. The secret is to develop a method by which one can buy on such pullbacks, get the profit and exit in time. I sincerely believe that the Dynamic Trading Approach does just that by capturing the ups and downs of intra-day as well as day to day moves. It has worked for us in forecasting the market moves with 65—70 per cent accuracy (3 to 5 intra-day and 1 —2 daily forecasts every trading day over the last 8 years).
л to subdue —ослаблять,
a: sample —образец,
i ' insight — проникновение во что-либо, интуиция
е projected targets —проецируемые цели
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