Долгосрочный технический анализ 3



Dollar breaks 1.42 DM on the upside Dollar crisis seems to be over June, 95)
Mid of May the dollar broke the heavy resistance around 1.42 DM and left the 1.36—1.39 consolidation range on the up­side. As this break-out was followed by several tests on the downside, at least from the technical viewpoint the cyclical lows should be behind us. Another bullish item is that this scenario occured without any intervention by any central bank. Obviously the market found a balance and finally heavy fund buying pushed the greenback higher. Fundamentally this action was backed by the announce­ment of stringent American trade sanctions against Japan. How important these punitive measures have already proved to be was shown by the last trade balance report. The US — Japanese trade deficit widened bv30%. despite the recent Yen surge and a lot of rancour between Mikey Kantor and his Japanese counterpart. Having tested the 80 Yen support twice, the dollar bounced back by 10% within two weeks.
The dollar finds a floor (Aug. 95)
The US dollar has been drifting around between 1.35 and 1.42 to the German mark for several months now, but at least the continual downward trend since the start of 1994 seems to be fmalv over. At the start of May a breakout to 1.45 was quickly brought to a halt. Many analysts believe though, that the dollar is between 10—20% undervalued, even if the recent data emerging from the US economy has altered that relationship slightly. The most recent interest rate cut by the FED was clearly seen as being their response to the negative economic data. It was the first cut in one and a half year, a period which has seen seven rises. Many experts predict that it will not be the last.
Buba lowers rates, but not to spur growth German interest rate cut (Jan. 96)
The Bundesbank (Buba) in Frakfurt cut the discount and Lombard rates by half a percent last month, taking them to 3 and 5% respectively. The long-awaited, but little hoped for, announcement took the markets bv surprise, following a series of rather mixed signals corning out of the Buba. Hans Tietmever. president of the bank, denied that there had been any ambiguity about the bank's intentions when he made the decision public. This brings German interest rates to their lowest level since mid-1988. and is the third such reduction within a year. It appears that the Buba was persuaded to make the decision after reviewing the progress of M3. the broad

агрегат МЗ плюс банковские депозиты частного сектора в инвалюте (Великобритания)
to run out — выдохнуться of steam 62
funds — деньги, ссужаемые банкам федеральным резервным фондом
i stringent — строгий ^
Ju: punitive — карательный
ае rancour — вражда
э: to emerge — появляться
е respectively — соответственно
to take by — удивить surprise
эе ju ambiguity — двусмысленность
to make public - обнародовать


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