Волновая теория Элиота 3


Elliott wave theory
According to Elliott, markets move in cyclical waves, with a kind ofself-similaritv within the waves. The big waves consist of smaller waves which themselves contain smaller waves and so on. The names of the waves according to their size are as follows, with increasing length in time and amount:
minuette [mmjuet]
minute [minit]
super cycle
grand supercycle
The time frame starts with minutes and even single trades and ends in movements lasting for several hundred years from beginning to end. A complete cycle on one stage of observation consists of several movements, of which some are in the direction of the wave and some are in the opposite.
Now let us listen to Elliott himself:
"The rules to be derived... are:
1) Waves in the direction of the main movement, or the odd numbered waves, are made up of five lesser waves.
2) Corrective waves, or waves against the main movement (even numbered waves) are made up of three lesser waves."
The basic concept states that this structure is repeated at the next level of waves again, like the movement of (2) to (3), while consisting of five waves itself, is part of the next-state movement towards (1). The system is thus valid on all possible levels of observation and the only problem the analyst has to solve is correct wave countine.
odd numbered - нечетные (числа)
even numbered — четные (числа)
to stretch — растягивать
to proceed - проходить
distortion — искажение
irregular — неправильный, нерегулярный

Since markets do not move in the ideal way. some correction might fail to close above the previous correction's low, (in an upward trend like above), some of the odd moves might fail in closing above the previous odd-waves top and so on. These distortions make wave-detecting and wave-counting quite difficult and subject to personal opinion, which is the main problem when one tries to computerize the system. The main interest of the investor is always the fifth wave since it indicates a turnaround of the trend. "Sometimes the fifth wave will 'stretch', that is, deploy or spread out. The fifth wave. instead of proceeding in the normal one-wave pattern of the same degree as the movement as a whole, simply stretches or sub-divides into five waves of lower degree... Such spreading out is a characteristic of markets that are unusually strong (or weak, if a down movement.)"
long run

неправомерность — большой срок

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